Expert Speak
Outlook 2021: Top Physical Security Trends Predictions for 2021
Genetec has shared its top five predictions for the physical security industry in 2021.
Innovative security solutions will help businesses thrive post pandemic
While the world remains optimistic for 2021, organizations will need to remain creative about how they use, update, and redeploy their security systems across their facilities. This will allow them to start thinking more broadly about the role of physical security and what it can do beyond traditional applications to deliver more value. We have already seen proof of this resilience and resourcefulness over the last few months with many organizations quickly adapting to the new needs and challenges posed by COVID-19, using their physical security technology as a strategic tool in the fight against the pandemic.
In many ways, the extraordinary difficulties brought on by the current situation have put an increased focus on the role and importance of the physical security industry. And once the pandemic is finally in the rear-view mirror, we believe organizations will continue to look at their physical security technology and related data as both strategic and enterprise-shaping.
Businesses will focus on privacy protection
In an effort to keep people safe during the COVID-19 pandemic, many organizations rushed to implement ‘fever detection’ devices and other new sensors without necessarily having the time to consider privacy implications. Public privacy concerns related to COVID-19 contact tracing and other social challenges will continue to grow. These sensitivities will require the physical security industry to address privacy head-on and find appropriate solutions.
Rather than hindering the development of new technologies, privacy will prove to be a driving force in the pursuit of responsible and innovative design, encouraging forward-thinking, ethical developers to embrace Privacy by Design methodologies. This involves proactively embedding privacy into the design and operation of IT systems, networked infrastructure, and business practices from the first line of code to the third-party vendors selected for partnership and integration.
And, in the physical security industry, building a software solution from the ground up with privacy in mind means that organizations won’t have to choose between protecting individual privacy and ensuring their physical security. Privacy should always be the default option rather than the other way round, and security technology developers who take it seriously will gain distinct advantages, notably their customers’ trust.
Cybersecurity risks will continue to rise
While cybersecurity has been an issue for some time, it will unfortunately continue to be a vital concern in 2021. From schools and hospitals to private businesses and governments, there’s been a rise in cyber-attacks over the last year. In Q3 of 2020 alone, Trend Micro reported that there were almost 4 million email threats and over 1 million hits on malicious URLs related to COVID-19.
Much of this can be linked to the overnight shift to remote work, which left companies scrambling to keep business running while also trying to secure corporate assets. This shift highlighted the fact that the traditional IT perimeter no longer exists. Businesses, organizations, and governments will need to take decisive steps to strengthen their cyber posture, or risk undermining the safety of their intellectual property, sensitive data, and personal information. Choosing trusted vendors and deploying physical security solutions that come with layers of cyber defense is critical.
Security teams understand that built-in encryption, multi-factor authentication, and password management are the first lines of defense. Beyond that, taking advantage of other features such as cybersecurity risk scoring, system vulnerability alerts, and automated reminders for firmware and hardware updates are significant advantages in this heightened risk environment.
Greater focus on trust in the supply chain
Physical security technology has become an integral part of an organization’s IT strategy and is, thankfully, now under the same level of scrutiny as other elements of an organization’s technology stack. Some governments are already discouraging the use of certain products from security manufacturers, citing trust and security vulnerabilities. End users, especially in the enterprise space, are taking more time to scrutinize the manufacturers, suppliers, and distributors with whom they choose to work.
This includes asking vendors more pointed questions about how they manage emerging threats, how forthcoming they are about product vulnerabilities and their partner ecosystem, and what their data and privacy policies are. For a physical security solution provider to be considered a reputable, reliable partner to their customers, they are going to have to meet more stringent requirements as part of the procurement process.
Demand for hybrid cloud solutions will continue to grow
According to Forrester’s recent report, Predictions 2021: Cloud Computing Powers Pandemic Recovery, global public cloud infrastructure will grow 35% to a market value of $120 billion over the next year. As online usage and remote work spiked during the pandemic, a global shift towards digital transformation, already underway, greatly accelerated.
In order to thrive, physical security professionals will need to follow the lead of IT departments. In the coming year, physical security leaders should let go of the either/or division between cloud and on-premises security systems and embrace a hybrid deployment model in their physical security infrastructure. This will allow them to implement specific systems or applications in the cloud while keeping existing on-premises systems.
With a hybrid cloud approach, security directors will become more agile in making decisions about how they can enhance scalability, redundancy, and availability to suit their organization’s evolving needs. They will also be able to quickly migrate to newer technologies, minimize hardware footprint, boost cybersecurity, and reduce costs. Cloud offerings need to become an essential option to quickly adapt to changes and ensure business continuity.
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Positive Technologies Study Reveals Successful Cyberattacks Nett 5X Profits
Positive Technologies has released a study on the dark web market, analysing prices for illegal cybersecurity services and products, as well as the costs incurred by cybercriminals to carry out attacks. The most expensive type of malware is ransomware, with a median cost of $7,500. Zero-day exploits are particularly valuable, often being sold for millions of dollars. However, the net profit from a successful cyberattack can be five times the cost of organizing it.
Experts estimate that performing a popular phishing attack involving ransomware costs novice cybercriminals at least $20,000. First, hackers rent dedicated servers, subscribe to VPN services, and acquire other tools to build a secure and anonymous IT infrastructure to manage the attack. Attackers also need to acquire the source code of malicious software or subscribe to ready-to-use malware, as well as tools for infiltrating the victim’s system and evading detection by security measures. Moreover, cybercriminals can consult with seasoned experts, purchase access to targeted infrastructures and company data, and escalate privileges within a compromised system. Products and tools are readily available for purchase on the dark web, catering to beginners. The darknet also offers leaked malware along with detailed instructions, making it easier for novice cybercriminals to carry out attacks.
Malware is one of the primary tools in a hacker’s arsenal, with 53% of malware-related ads focused on sales. In 19% of all posts, infostealers designed to steal data are offered. Crypters and code obfuscation tools, used to help attackers hide malware from security tools, are featured in 17% of cases. Additionally, loaders are mentioned in 16% of ads. The median cost of these types of malware stands at $400, $70, and $500, respectively. The most expensive malware is ransomware: its median cost is $7,500, with some offers reaching up to $320,000. Ransomware is primarily distributed through affiliate programs, known as Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS), where participants in an attack typically receive 70–90% of the ransom. To become a partner, a criminal must make a contribution of 0.05 Bitcoin (approximately $5,000) and have a solid reputation on the dark web.
Another popular attack tool is exploits: 69% of exploit-related ads focus on sales, with zero-day vulnerability posts accounting for 32% of them. In 31% of cases, the cost of exploits exceeds $20,000 and can reach several million dollars. Access to corporate networks is relatively inexpensive, with 72% of such ads focused on sales, and 62% of them priced at under a thousand dollars. Among cybercriminal services, hacks are the most popular option, accounting for 49% of reports. For example, the price for compromising a personal email account starts at $100, while the cost for a corporate account begins at $200.
Dmitry Streltsov, Threat Analyst at Positive Technologies, says, “On dark web marketplaces, prices are typically determined in one of two ways: either sellers set a fixed price, or auctions are held. Auctions are often used for exclusive items, such as zero-day exploits. The platforms facilitating these deals also generate revenue, often through their own escrow services, which hold the buyer’s funds temporarily until the product or service is confirmed as delivered. On many platforms, these escrow services are managed by either administrators or trusted users with strong reputations. In return, they earn at least 4% of the transaction amount, with the forums setting the rates.”
Considering the cost of tools and services on the dark web, along with the median ransom amount, cybercriminals can achieve a net profit of $100,000–$130,000 from a successful attack—five times the cost of their preparation. For a company, such an incident can result not only in ransom costs but also in massive financial losses due to disrupted business processes. For example, in 2024, due to a ransomware attack, servers of CDK Global were down for two weeks. The company paid cybercriminals $25 million, while the financial losses of dealers due to system downtime exceeded $600 million.
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